In Section I, we respond to the ongoing challenge to our view that the US economy is on a recessionary path. The available evidence overwhelmingly supports the notion that US monetary policy is tight, which argues against the “no…
Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.
Consensus expectations for the US economy were bleak at the start of the year. In hindsight, this pessimism was excessive: real GDP expanded in the first two quarters of the year (see Country Focus). Similarly, the US Conference…
US Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% on a quarterly annualized basis, only slightly above Q1 growth of 2.0%. Although consumption was revised up by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, business spending grew at a slower…
Today’s Strategy Report chartbook presents the data underpinning our view that both inflation and growth are slowing, likely pointing to a recession beginning sometime in the first half of next year. We are tactically equal weight…
The final release of the University of Michigan’s gauge of US consumer inflation expectations unexpectedly rose in August. It shows 1-year ahead inflation expectations increased by a tenth of a percentage point to 3.5% (an…
US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Thursday. The 5.2% m/m decline in new orders for manufactured durable goods came in below expectations of a 4.0% m/m decrease and marks the biggest monthly drop since April…
The latest update of the Atlanta Fed’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households’ ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – is now…
Results of the Philadelphia Fed’s August Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey sent a negative signal on Tuesday. The diffusion index for firms’ assessment of general business activity across the region relapsed…