On the surface, Chinese credit data sent a positive signal about the domestic economy. Chinese aggregate social financing totaled CNY 4.1 trillion in September – exceeding both August’s CNY 3.1 trillion and…
The Q3 earnings season will shift into high gear this Friday as banks report their financial results for the quarter. Among the trends that we’ll be watching for is insight on the outlook for profit margins. As our US…
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and…
Results of the New York Fed’s survey show American consumers’ near-term inflation outlook ticked up in September. Respondents’ one-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, and the three-year…
Households’ excess pandemic savings will eventually run out, but we continue to disagree with the widespread view that they’re already gone or entirely in the hands of the wealthy. Consumers’ demise continues to be greatly…
The Citi US Inflation Surprise Index has risen over the past two months after having bottomed at a three-year low in July. The good news is that the level of the index remains negative after having first fallen below zero in…
Aggressive monetary tightening has always led to recession, although the timing is uncertain. The effects of high interest rates are starting to be felt. Investors should stay risk off and buy government bonds as a safe haven…
The consumption rotation from goods to services has been one of the drivers of the global manufacturing downturn. Demand for durable goods normalized after the pandemic binge. Meanwhile, consumption of services benefitted from…
