To the extent that Taiwanese export orders act as a bellwether for global trade dynamics, we often monitor the release to gain a sense of the state of the manufacturing cycle. On this front, the October update provided a positive…
Oil prices have relapsed despite the supply cuts and the geopolitical volatility stemming from the Middle East. Odds are that global oil demand is downshifting. The chart above illustrates that there is a tight relationship…
Recent data releases have painted a mixed picture of US housing market dynamics. On the one hand, housing starts and building permits unexpectedly increased on a month-on-month basis in October. After falling in 2022, housing…
The latest house price data indicate that China's housing market remains weak. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities declined by 0.4% m/m in October – a faster pace of decline than…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Chinese policymakers are facing the Impossible Trinity. When faced with rapid currency depreciation in August-September, the PBoC deliberately tightened…
On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y…
The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase…
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the…
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury…
China's money and credit data remained weak in October. New total social financing amounted to RMB 1.85 trillion – less than the RMB 1.95 trillion anticipated and below the prior month's increase of RMB 4.12…