According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, labor demand can fall even in a full-employment economy. Investors often focus on the unemployment rate as a gauge of how strong the labor market is. The…
Results of the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey suggest that the tight monetary policy stance is still weighing on the Eurozone economy. Banks tightened credit standards for businesses and consumers further in Q4…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that investors should go long German curve steepeners. Last week at Davos, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde leaned heavily against the…
The SIFI banks (BAC, C, JPM and WFC) kicked off the fourth-quarter US reporting season on January 12th. As usual, our US Investment Strategists studied the SIFI’s earnings calls looking for macroeconomic insights from…
Some key Asian trade indicators are warning against betting on a sustained rebound in global trade activity. In particular, Taiwanese export orders collapsed by 16% y/y in December – significantly below expectations of a…
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) sent a mixed signal on Monday. On the one hand, the LEI posted its 22nd consecutive month-over-month decline in December – a negative sign for the…
The SIFI banks expressed confidence in their credit outlook for 2024 and expect that credit losses will crest soon, given the reserves they’ve already set aside. Their implicit embrace of the soft-landing narrative suggests to us…
After having traded sideways for the past month, US equities ended the week on a high note with the S&P 500 closing at fresh record high on Friday. Last year’s winners are once again driving the rally. Information…
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers delivered a positive surprise on Friday. The headline index jumped from 69.7 to a 30-month high of 78.8, beating expectations of a slight increase…
An update to our outlooks for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies following this week’s remarks from Fed Governor Waller.