According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, the oil demand forecasts from the IEA, EIA, and OPEC are too optimistic. The IEA, EIA, and OPEC all anticipate oil demand growth to slow this year…
The US economy is in the “Overheating” phase, so stronger growth brings higher inflation. Tight monetary policy means recession is still likely over the next 12 months. Stay defensive.
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Trump’s conviction will not be a game changer in the upcoming Presidential election. President Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges by a 12-person jury…
Chinese PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) disappointed in May. The manufacturing PMI contracted in May (49.5), breaking a two-month expansion streak and disappointing expectations of continued growth. Meanwhile…
US Q1 GDP was revised lower from 1.6% q/q annualized to 1.3%. Notably, the downward revision to personal consumption was higher than expected, from 2.5% q/q annualized to 2.0%. Investment and government spending were revised…
As in many other countries, China’s cyclical consumption growth is primarily driven by labor market conditions, income, and borrowing. BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service maintains the view that these…
In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and…
Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months.
The large buildup in Chinese households’ savings deposits is unlikely to fuel consumption. Poor outlooks on labor market conditions, income, and households’ unwillingness to borrow will hinder consumption through the rest of 2024.
The message from the latest Beige Book release is confirming that US demand is showing signs of slowing down. Of the 12 Federal Reserve districts, 2 reported modest economic growth, 8 reported economic activity was slightly up,…