Consumer
US Retail Sales Surprise To The Upside In July…
No Near-Term Fiscal Response In Sight Despite Chinese Malaise…
The Sahm Rule Is Not A Leading Indicator For The Economy…
Transitions To Serious Delinquencies Will Cap Credit Card Loan Growth…
Challenging the Consensus on Household Excess Savings…
The decision by GeoMacro team on July 2 to short USDJPY and underweight equities has proven to be prescient. We still do not like the market setup from here on out. A recession would, obviously, be negative for risk assets. But even if investors avoid that scenario, the transition from cash- to leverage-driven growth is unlikely without a significant Fed rate-cutting cycle.
Banks Tightened Credit Card Lending Standards In Q2…
Consumers Grow Pessimistic About Main Street But Not Wall Street…
Strong Chinese Imports Do Not Signal Robust Demand…
US Slowdown Story Continues…