According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, robust iron ore imports are sending a false signal about steel demand. Instead, these supplies are being used to restock inventories. By the end of…
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, there are clear signs that growth is weakening. BCA’s Global Nowcast has been slowing for three months. Behind this slowdown is the fact that the US…
The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.
China’s NBS manufacturing PMI declined further in July, from 49.5 to 49.4, marking a third consecutive month of contraction. New orders and new export orders underscored continued weakness in both domestic and foreign…
Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced.
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence surprised to the upside, rising from 97.8 to 100.3 in July. Respondents’ more optimistic economic outlook drove the overall increase, offsetting a bleaker view of current…
Chinese industrial profits growth accelerated in June, rising from 0.7% y/y to 3.6%. Profits expanded at 3.5% in the first half of 2024, compared to 3.4% in the first half of 2023, and suggest that China’s manufacturing…
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?
Just a few days after unexpectedly lowering three key borrowing rates by 10 basis points (bps), the PBoC cut the 1-year medium-term lending facility rate by 20 bps, from 2.50% to 2.30%. While the earlier cut lowered the…
The preliminary release of Q2 2024 US GDP surprised to the upside on Thursday. The US economy grew 2.8% on an annualized basis, and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis. The two largest drivers of the acceleration were consumption (…