The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.
For the past two weeks, oil has sold off amid a global spike in yields. Oil prices and Treasury yields tend to be positively correlated, as oil prices are a fast-moving component of inflation, driving the inflation expectations…
In a trendless yet volatile year for oil, Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran this weekend is a reminder the outlook is fraught with geopolitical risks. Risks are usually expressed as a geopolitical price premium, but this…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
Crude prices have been trendless but volatile in 2024. Oil’s choppy price action illustrates the demand and supply tug-o-war in the market. Our bias is for crude prices to weaken on a six-to-nine months horizon. Good…
While recent cross-asset developments have sent a risk-on signal, with equities and bond yields both higher, the commodity complex has recently been sending a more somber message. “Dr. Copper” is a bellwether for…
We maintain 37% odds of a major recessionary oil shock, 51% odds of minor shocks, and 12% odds of no shocks.
Regular readers are familiar with our expectations for a global recession over the cyclical investment timeframe. A global downturn is overwhelmingly bearish for oil demand. The supply side, on the other hand, is…