Commodities & Energy Sector

This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.

This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.

In this Special Report, Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy, and Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy, together argue that the conflict in Ukraine is already frozen, already losing support in the West, and is likely to taper off over the course of 2025. However, there is no easy alpha left to harvest from that conclusion, the market has already moved on. Some long-term investment opportunities remain in broad European assets.

We maintain 37% odds of a major recessionary oil shock, 51% odds of minor shocks, and 12% odds of no shocks.

Western policymakers are pursuing three capital “T” Truths: China is evil, climate change is a major risk, and Russia is… also evil. Pursuing all three priorities at the same time presents a version of the classic “impossible trinity.”