Buy commodities, neutral markets, and crypto to hedge against World War III. In their latest special report BCA’s GeoMacro and Global Asset Allocation strategists outline an asset allocation framework for a deep tail risk scenario: a…
In this Q4 Strategy Outlook, we discuss where we stand on our recession call, the outlook for stocks and bonds in various scenarios, why investors are misunderstanding the impact of AI on corporate profits, whether the US dollar has…
MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.
This week our three screeners highlight plays in global small-cap value stocks, gold miners, and stocks exposed to an exciting structural investment theme: Space.
Our Commodity strategists expect gold’s consolidation to resolve in a bullish breakout; buy gold and gold mining stocks in both absolute and relative terms. The metal’s resilience despite unfavorable cyclical drivers points to a…
Our Commodity strategists recommend staying short LME copper outright and long gold/short LME copper on a cyclical basis. The unwind in copper, set off by the US tariff exemption on refined metal, is not yet complete. An inventory…
BCA’s Commodity strategists remain long gold/short LME copper and have initiated an outright short in LME copper as a cyclical trade. The US copper tariff will redirect supply away from the US, replenishing depleted inventories…
MacroQuant’s US equity z-score is dangerously close to the -1 threshold. Moves below that threshold have reliably coincided with equity bear markets in the past. As such, MacroQuant recommends an underweight on stocks, offset by an…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.