The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.…
If the 130-day complexity of the Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond collapsed to 1.30, it would signal the risk of a -20 percent market slump. This indicator, at 1.37, is not yet at critical, but we recommend that you keep a close eye on…
Coffee prices have surged in recent days and have now gained 8.5% over the past week. Two main forces are behind this rally. First, the recent pause in the US dollar strength is a tailwind for coffee prices. In particular, the…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…
Coffee prices are on a rip. They are up nearly 30% over the past month, bringing the year-to-date increase to almost 60% and climbing to a 7-year high. Hostile weather in Brazil’s coffee growing region – which…
A large risk to coffee supply is emerging, which is making coffee an increasingly attractive buy. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, East Africa is suffering from the worst locust infestation in…
Highlights Escalating trade tensions - most notably between the U.S. and China, and the U.S. and its NAFTA partners - threaten the outperformance ags posted in 1Q18, which was driven by unfavorable weather and transportation disruptions…