The EU’s transition to a carbon tax launched this week via its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanics (CBAM) will lead to higher inflation in the medium term (3 – 5 years out), and will stoke consumer (i.e., voter) antipathy if it…

Special Report

Carbon credits as an asset class are becoming increasingly investable. Given that the structural bull case for this asset class is compelling, strategic investors should long carbon credits. However tactical investors should book…

Global oil demand growth is tracking with our estimate of ~ 1.8mm b/d for this year. Supply discipline is being maintained by OPEC 2.0, where the core (KSA and the UAE) and Russia have reduced production by ~ 240k b/d yoy in 1H23.…

Markets continue to be tossed to and fro by central-bank policy, and risks of higher commodity prices. These are due to fiscal stimulus and exogenous weather and war-related risk, which could send food and energy prices higher this…

Special Report

We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy…

The initial phase of the EU’s ambitious CBAM will launch 1 October and will begin collecting a carbon tax in 2026. Between now and then, it will be challenged as it attempts to put a price tag on CO2 emissions as imports cross the EU…

Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to…

Special Report

What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?

Dear Client, We will not be publishing the Commodity & Energy Strategy next week, as I will be participating in a panel discussion with Dr. Bassam Fattouh, Director of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), which will focus…

Executive Summary Natural Gas Markets Eerily Quiet  An eerie calm in European natural gas markets belies the state of war in Ukraine that already is producing a cutoff of Russian natgas supplies in retaliation for the EU…