Investors should go long US treasuries and stay overweight defensive versus cyclical sectors, large caps versus small caps, and aerospace/defense stocks. Regionally we favor the US, India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, while…
Executive Summary EU Metal Industry Under Threat Russia’s threat to cut off all remaining exports of natural gas to the EU via Ukraine will further imperil the bloc’s struggling metals industry, particularly…
Executive Summary The US inflation surprise increases the odds of both congressional gridlock and recession, which increases uncertainty over US leadership past 2024 and reduces the US’s ability to lower tensions with China and…
Executive Summary Our negative view on the summer rally is coming to fruition, with equities falling back on the negative geopolitical, macro, and monetary environment. China is easing policy ahead of its full return to autocratic…
Executive Summary Biden Can Take Risks Ahead Of Midterms News reports suggest House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will travel to Taiwan and meet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in the coming days. China has promised military…
Executive Summary Italy’s right-wing alliance, led by Brothers of Italy, will likely outperform in the upcoming election. The new government will prioritize the economy, posing a risk to the EU’s united front…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
Executive Summary China: GeoRisk Indicator A new equilibrium between NATO, which now includes Sweden and Finland, and Russia needs to be reestablished before geopolitical risks in Europe subside. Russia aims to inflict a…
Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…