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China-U.S. Trade: A Structural Deal?
Special Report Highlights So What? Optimism over a U.S.-China trade deal is becoming excessive. Why? Presidents Trump and Xi appear to want a deal but their late March summit is not yet finalized. Several news reports supporting the bullish…
Geopolitical Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
China: Stimulating Amid The Trade Talks
Special Report Highlights So What? China’s January credit data suggest that stimulus is here. Why? January credit growth was a blowout number. Trade uncertainty is likely to be prolonged with an extension of talks. Equity bourses in…
Geopolitical Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim, Matt Gertken
Witches' Brew: How Geopolitical Risks May Short-Circuit The Late-Cycle Rally
Highlights So What? The late-cycle rally faces non-trivial political hurdles. Why? The rally is based on a too-sanguine view of the Fed, China, and the trade war. Other issues – like Brexit and the U.S. border showdown…
Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Marko Papic
Is China Already Isolated?
Special Report Highlights So What? It is too soon to adopt a cyclical overweight position on Chinese equities. Remain overweight only tactically. Why? China is still maintaining a disciplined approach to economic stimulus. The US-China trade…
Geopolitical Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
Five Black Swans In 2019
Special Report Highlights So What? Our “Black Swan” risks for the year reveal several potential wars. Why? While we think it is premature to expect armed conflict over Taiwan, an outbreak of serious tensions is possible. Russia…
Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Marko Papic
BCA Geopolitical Strategy 2018 Report Card
Special Report Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would…
Geopolitical Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim, Matt Gertken, Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky
BCA Geopolitical Strategy 2018 Report Card
Highlights So What? Our best and worst calls of 2018 cast light on our methodology and 2019 forecasts. Why? Our clients took us to task for violating our own methodology on the Iranian oil sanctions. Sticking to our guns would…
Geopolitical Strategy by Roukaya Ibrahim, Matt Gertken, Marko Papic, Katia Shtrevensky
2019 Key Views: Balanced On A Knife’s Edge
Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…
Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Marko Papic
2019 Key Views: Balanced On A Knife’s Edge
Special Report Highlights So What? Global divergence will persist beyond the near term. Why? China’s stimulus will be disappointing unless things get much worse. U.S.-China trade war will reignite and strategic tensions will continue.…
Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Marko Papic
U.S.-China: The Tech War And Reform Agenda
Special Report Highlights So What? The tech war will continue to disrupt the trade truce. Why? The U.S. and China have legitimate national security concerns about each other’s tech policies. The 90-day trade talks cannot succeed without…
Geopolitical Strategy, China Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jonathan LaBerge

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