China’s GDP growth rate moderated from 4.9% y/y to 4.0% y/y in Q4, indicating that economic activity eased in the final quarter of 2021. Monthly economic data also suggests that domestic demand was weak in December. Retail…
Highlights The neutral rate of interest in the US is 3%-to-4% in nominal terms or 1%-to-2% in real terms, which is substantially higher than the Fed believes and the market is discounting. The end of the household deleveraging cycle,…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, Chinese share prices remain in a risk window. A model based on a regression of aggregate industrial profits on China’s credit impulse suggests that…
Highlights Chinese stocks are currently trading close to their fair value in absolute terms. When equity valuations are neutral, the direction of the next move in stocks depends on the profit outlook. Chinese corporate earnings are…
Chinese policymakers have recently shifted to prioritize macroeconomic stability ahead of the politically important 20th Party Congress at the end of this year. This shift is clear from communication out of the annual Central…
Highlights Global equities are poised to deliver mid-to-high single-digit returns this year, with the outlook turning bleaker in 2023 and beyond. Non-US markets are likely to outperform. We examine the four pillars that have…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service argues against a cyclically overweight stance towards Chinese stocks. Chinese investable stocks were among the worst performing major equity indices last year, ending 2021…
Highlights For the time being, US core inflation will not drop anywhere close to the Fed’s target range. The Fed will continue tightening until something breaks. US bond yields and the US dollar are heading higher. The S&…
Highlights December’s PMI and our market-based China growth indicator improved slightly, but the underlying data send a mixed signal about the country’s business cycle and do not give a green light for cyclically…