Executive Summary China’s Business Cycle Has Not Bottomed Recent data showed a substantial improvement in the economy in the first two months of the year. However, the optimism is not well supported by other industry and…
Chinese industrial profits grew 5.0% y/y in the first two months of this year – marking a slight acceleration from December’s 4.2% y/y increase. Nevertheless, the profit expansion is significantly below the average 13…
By mid-last week, the Hang Seng Tech index had gained 37% over six trading days amid investor optimism of receding regulatory risk. However, the rally appeared to fizzle towards the end of the week. A statement on Thursday from…
BCA Research’s Emerging Market Strategy service recommends overweighting Chinese A-shares within an EM equity universe. The risk-reward profile for the A-share market has improved because of the following:…
Executive Summary EM Equity Sentiment Is Not Very Depressed Yet Chinese A-shares have become oversold, and authorities are determined to stabilize the market. Yet, downshifting corporate profits and a selloff in global…
Executive Summary EM Equity Sentiment Is Not Very Depressed Yet Chinese A-shares have become oversold, and authorities are determined to stabilize the market. Yet, downshifting corporate profits and a selloff in global…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2% The neutral rate of interest is 3%-to-4% in the United States. This is substantially higher than the market estimate of around 2%. It…
Executive Summary Higher Prices Expected Global oil supply will move lower for a few months, until shipping can be re-routed and re-priced in response to sanctions against Russian oil producers and refiners. In the…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service concludes that China faces substantial challenges in expanding its economy. China set an ambitious economic growth target of 5.5% for the year, relying on fiscal stimulus…
Global equity markets enjoyed a healthy rebound on Wednesday. Asian equities led the move higher as pledges from Beijing to support the economy and capital markets improved sentiment among investors. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng…