Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The odds of a recession in the US are lower than widely perceived. The probability of a recession is higher in Europe, although this week’s partial…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service expects the RMB to continue to depreciate relative to the US dollar in the next few months. China’s interest rate differential versus the US dollar has fallen deeper…
Executive Summary China: Can The Economy Recover Without Housing Revival The rebound in China’s business activity in June reflects the release of pent-up demand from the economic reopening after lockdowns in April and…
Chinese GDP expanded by a mere 0.4% y/y (-2.6% q/q) in Q2, slowing sharply from Q1’s 4.8% y/y rate and falling below expectations of 1.2% y/y. More recent data – rebounding retail sales and industrial production in…
Executive Summary China's Unemployment Over the past week we have been visiting clients along the US west coast. In this report we hit some of the highlights from the most important and frequently asked questions. Xi…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing’s plan to bring forward RMB 2.6 trillion of infrastructure financing in H2 will not result in new investments. Rather, it will offset the drop in…
China’s trade surplus surged to an all-time high of USD 97.9 billion in June. The increase reflects an 18% y/y jump in exports as well as a slowdown in import growth from 4% y/y to 1% y/y. The post-lockdown normalization…
Executive Summary No Funding For Property Developers, No Land Sales Beijing’s plan to bring forward RMB 2.6 trillion of financing for infrastructure expenditures in H2 2022 is a considerable stimulus. However, this…
A decision is expected shortly on whether President Joe Biden will roll back some of the Trump-era tariffs on imports from China. Voices within President Biden’s administration are divided. US Treasury Secretary Janet…
Chinese credit data suggest that credit demand rebounded in June. Aggregate financing surged to CNY 5.2tr from CNY 2.8tr in May, significantly above expectations of CNY 4.2tr. Similarly, new loans rose to CNY 2.8tr from CNY 1.9tr…