According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the macro and geopolitical outlook is darkening for China’s communist party. The “East Asian miracle” phase of Chinese growth has ended.…
Highlights Oil demand expectations remain high. Realized demand continues to disappoint. This means OPEC 2.0's production-management strategy – i.e., keeping the level of supply below demand – will continue to dictate…
The May economic data confirm that China’s domestic demand recovery has passed its peak strength. Most of the macro indicators released yesterday are below the consensus and growing at a slower rate (on both a year-on-year…
Dear Client, Next week, in lieu of our regular weekly report, I will be hosting two webcasts where I will discuss the outlook for China’s economy and financial markets, a year into policy normalization. The webcasts will be held…
On a month-on-month basis, Chinese credit was relatively stable in May. Aggregate financing was flat at CNY 1.92 trillion versus CNY 1.85 trillion in April. Similarly, CNY 1.5 trillion worth of new yuan loans were extended,…
Highlights Geopolitical risk is trickling back into financial markets. China’s fiscal-and-credit impulse collapsed again. The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index is ticking back up after the sharp drop from 2020. All of our…
Highlights US labor-market disappointments notwithstanding, the global recovery being propelled by real GDP growth in the world's major economies is on track to be the strongest in 80 years. This growth will fuel commodity demand,…
Chinese producer prices surprised to the upside in May, jumping to a 13-year high of 9.0% y/y from 6.8% y/y, above the expected 8.5% y/y. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures were much more muted for Chinese consumers. The 12.0%…
Highlights In the near term, the RMB against the US dollar has ceased to be a one-way bet. Market sentiment will re-focus on economic fundamentals, which are less supportive of further RMB appreciation. In the longer term, the…