We used this year’s underperformance in the financial sector to boost positions to overweight two weeks ago. Similarly, we recommend buying capital markets equities on price weakness. This sub-index thrives when investor risk…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Upgrade capital markets stocks to overweight and put them on the high-conviction list. Capital formation is poised to accelerate in the second half of the year. Our Indicators suggest that demand for…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The elevated ratio of market cap-to-GDP discounts strong growth far into the future, suggesting that a market validation phase may be lurking. Capital markets-sensitive stocks have had a good run, but…
A number of large investment banks have reported better-than-expected profit results, courtesy of a flurry of trading activity. While any profit windfall is always a plus, the nature of these gains is fleeting and unlikely to break…
Consumer products stocks are likely to move to an even larger valuation premium before the cyclical outperformance phase ends.
Expectations of a prolonged period of abundant liquidity and rising confidence that recession is not imminent have created the conditions for a potential blow-off phase. This week we are fine-tuning our portfolio for peak performance…
The previous Insight showed that the capital markets group required a reversal in currently bearish relative forward earnings momentum in order to break out of its funk. Trading profits are volatile, and markets typically only reward…
Several large capital markets firms have produced better-than-expected profits in the latest quarter, driven largely by a flurry of fixed income trading following the Brexit vote, subsequently triggering a short covering rally in…
Investors have embraced renewed Fed hawkishness as a vote of economic confidence and confirmation of analysts' rosy earnings forecasts, but the bounce in financials looks unsustainable, outside of REITs. Hang on to gold shares.
The previous Insight showed that capital formation has hit a brick wall as a consequence of ebbing risk tolerance. That is robbing the corporate sector of much needed growth capital, and will reinforce the need for retrenchment. As a…