Barring a dramatic further de-escalation of the trade war, the US and much of the rest of the world will enter a recession over the next few months. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now.
In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we…
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the…
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, while the idea that Donald Trump would allow China to build factories in the US does not mesh with the contemporary media narrative, it would fit the historical track…
Indonesian stocks have sold off sharply and underperformed their EM and emerging Asian peers – both in local currency and in common currency terms – despite the nation’s 5.1% real GDP growth rate (the highest…
As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?
Since early 2023, the Philippine peso has depreciated by 8% versus the US dollar despite the country’s central bank pushing up real policy rates by 500 basis points. BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy argues that raising…
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, Beijing will engage in ongoing negotiations with the EU regarding its import tax decision rather than impose meaningful retaliatory measures. The EU and…