The Fed is accentuating bearish dynamics for the dollar over the next three to six months. The upcoming National Congress of the Communist Party of China provides Chinese authorities with an incentive to ramp up stimulus this year.…
The dollar countertrend move has more downside, but beyond the next few months, the dollar remains in a cyclical bull market. Improvements in global growth, even if temporary, are likely to lift non-U.S. rates more than U.S. ones.…
Japan is in a liquidity trap: bad economic news is good for the yen while good economic news is bad for the yen. Chinese reflation could help risk assets in the months ahead, but poor EM fundamentals will reassert themselves later…
Fed dovishness is weakening the U.S. dollar. As the ECB and BoJ move to the sidelines and the Fed remains reluctant to hike rates, the euro and Japanese yen should continue to recover versus the greenback.
Risk assets are stuck in a range driven by the Fed feedback loop. But the current rally may continue for another quarter or two.
The British pound may be prone to further weakness in the coming months as the odds of a Brexit rise.
A surprisingly dovish outcome from this week's FOMC meeting has led to broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. The monetary policy divergence supporting the dollar may have peaked.