Special Report

Highlights We are exploring the key FX implications of the views presented in BCA's 2018 annual outlook. The dollar is likely to experience some upside in the first half of 2018, but then weaken as U.S. monetary policy becomes…

Highlights The euro doesn't have the key attributes of a funding or a risk-off currency. This means its behavior is not fixed. While in the past it has behaved as a risk-off currency, this year it has traded as a risk-on one,…

Special Report

Dear Client, Instead of our Weekly Report, we are sending you this Special Report written by my colleague Marko Papic, BCA's Chief Geopolitical Strategist. Marko argues that while there is considerable risk that NAFTA is abrogated,…

Special Report

Highlights NAFTA is truly at risk - as currency markets suggest; NAFTA's impact on the U.S. economy is positive but marginal; The key question is whether Trump is a true populist or a "pluto-populist"; If the former,…

Highlights Jerome Powell takes the helm of the Federal Reserve at a time when both sides of the Fed's dual mandate are in conflict. The lagging nature of inflation explains why it has failed to rise even though the unemployment…

Feature This week we are sending you a shorter-than-usual market update, as we are also publishing a Special Report exploring the outlook for USD cross-currency basis swap spreads. This report argues that USD basis swap spreads should…

Highlights This week, we are reviewing all our current active trades in our Tactical Overlay. As a reminder, these positions (Table 1) are meant to complement our strategic GFIS Model Fixed Income Portfolio, typically with shorter…

Highlights Economic Outlook: Global growth will stay strong over the next 12 months, with the U.S. surprising on the upside. Unfortunately, the global economy will succumb to a recession in 2019. Stagflation will become a major problem…

Highlights Recommendation Allocation  The global growth outlook remains strong, with corporate earnings likely to beat expectations for a couple more quarters. Inflation and Fed policy are key to asset allocation. We expect…

Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors - one of our favorite and long-standing indicators to assess the potential for monetary policy changes. The broad conclusion - the…