Canada

Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models are not sending any strong signals at the moment. That means the balance of forces could tilt the greenback in either way, in what appears to be a stalemate for the U.S. dollar so far.  We are…

Highlights The sharp fall in the bond-to-gold ratio is an important signal to pay heed to. It might suggest that confidence in the U.S. dollar is finally waning. If correct, the sharp rally in crypto currencies over the past few months warrants…

Highlights We update our long-range forecasts of returns from a range of asset classes – equities, bonds, alternatives, and currencies – and make some refinements to the methodologies we used in our last report in November 2017. We add coverage of U.K.,…

Highlights Global financial markets are currently dealing with a fresh round of uncertainty related to U.S.-China trade tensions. Yet while equities and government bond yields have fallen in response to the U.S. imposition of tariffs and escalation of the…

Highlights U.S.: The Fed remains decidedly neutral, despite market expectations (and White House pressure) for lower U.S. interest rates. Treasury yields are mispriced and should grind higher over the next 6-12 months, led first by inflation expectations…

Highlights Central bankers appear to be in a rush to boost inflation expectations before the next economic downturn. This in practice should be stimulative for the global economy. Historically, currencies of small, open economies are typically the first…