Highlights Equities & Bonds: The accelerating upward momentum of global equities – the ultimate “leading economic indicator” – suggests that the current rise in global bond yields can continue. Maintain…
Highlights The U.S. and China are moving toward formalizing a trade ceasefire that reduces geopolitical risk in the near term. The risk of a no-deal Brexit is finished – removing a major downside to European assets. Spanish…
Highlights Shifting Trends: The factors that have driven bond yields lower throughout 2019 – slowing growth, rising uncertainty, demand for safe assets and dovish monetary policy expectations – have all started to turn in a…
Highlights In this Weekly Report, we present our semi-annual chartbook of the BCA Central Bank Monitors. All of the Monitors are now below the zero line, indicating a growing need to ease global monetary policy (Chart of the Week).…
Canada is gearing up for a federal election on October 21. The consensus holds that the Liberal Party of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will remain in power with a minority government, or possibly in a coalition with the left-wing…
The price differential at which Canadian heavy-sour crude trades to the North American benchmark WTI will be pushed to -$20/bbl into 1Q20, as transportation constraints continue to slow the marginal barrel’s egress from Alberta.…
Highlights Currency markets continue to fight a tug-of-war between deteriorating global growth and easing global financial conditions. Such an environment is typically fertile ground for a dollar bull market, yet the trade-weighted…
The bulk of outstanding Canadian corporate debt is rated investment grade (IG), but this represents only 5% of the global IG market. However, the total market capitalization of Canadian corporate bonds is 30% of Canada’s…
Canadian corporate credit spreads have been remarkably stable since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The overall index option-adjusted spread (OAS) has stayed range-bound between 100 and 200bps. Total and excess (duration-…