Canada
The Dollar And NIRP…
Highlights Fed/BoE NIRP: It is too soon for either the Fed or Bank of England to consider a move to a negative interest rate policy (NIRP), even with US and UK money markets flirting with pricing in that outcome. Lessons from “NIRP 1.0”: In the countries…
The Fragile Canadian Economy…
Last Friday, BCA Research's Foreign Exchange Strategy service highlighted various reasons why the CAD will not benefit as much from a rebound in oil prices as in previous instances. There has been a paradigm shift in oil production, with US shale producers…
Highlights Competitive devaluation will remain the dominant policy landscape in the near term. This means that paradoxically, currencies with high and/or positive long-term interest rates remain at risk. The CAD may be the next shoe to drop. Crude oil…
Highlights Inflation-Linked Bonds: The plunging price of oil has put renewed downward pressure on global bond yields via lower inflation expectations. With oil prices set to recover over the next 6-12 months as the global economy awakens from the COVID-19…
Is The CAD Set For A Rebound…
Highlights Oil prices are up strongly from their lows, but conditions for a durable bottom may not yet be in place. The main hiccup is that an air pocket will likely remain under global oil demand until most social-distancing measures are lifted. That…
Highlights The Federal Reserve’s temporary FIMA repo facility will go a long way in helping ease dollar-funding stress outside the US. However, with the duration of the lockdown highly uncertain, a liquidity crisis could rapidly evolve into a solvency…
Yesterday the OECD released its estimate of the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdown policies around the world. The sobering conclusion of the OECD’s work is that the initial direct impact of the shutdowns could be a decline in the level of output between one…