Canada
Highlights Canada has been a G10 leader in innoculating its population. This should allow economic activity to resume, boosting the CAD/USD. A cresting in COVID-19 infections should permit the Bank of Canada to reintroduce a hawkish bias in upcoming policy meetings. While the CAD/USD is…
BoC Stands Pat Amid Heightened Uncertainty…
Highlights An Iran crisis is imminent. We still think a US-Iran détente is possible but our conviction is lower until Biden makes a successful show of force. Oil prices will be volatile. Fiscal drag is a risk to the cyclical global macro view. But developed markets are more fiscally proactive…
Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought producing the water shortage was connected to climate change by US…
Risks From The Upcoming Canadian Federal Election…
Highlights Confidence vs. Inflation: Global bond yields are lacking direction at the moment. The variant is setting a near-term ceiling on bond yields while the medium-term floor is established by inflation. The inflation pressures – fueled by tightening global labor markets and persistent…
US Trade Deficit and Canada’s Surplus: Two Sides Of The Same Coin…
The Lucky Loonie
The Lucky…
Highlights Global oil demand will remain betwixt and between recovery and relapse through 3Q21, as stronger DM consumer spending and increasing mobility wrestles with persistent concerns over COVID-19-induced lockdowns in Latin America and Asia. These concerns will be allayed as vaccines become…
BoC Tapers, CAD Ends The Day Flat…