According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, the BoC should have sufficient evidence of Canadian disinflation to cut rates this summer. The market is pricing in a similar amount of rate cuts for the BoC…
Canadian equities have lagged their US counterparts for over a decade. Sector composition largely explains this underperformance. Banks and natural resources stocks are overrepresented in the TSX while the US stock market is…
The Canadian economy added 90.4 thousand jobs in April, up from a new loss of 2.2 thousand jobs in March. The April reading beat expectations of a more moderate increase of 20 thousand. The services sector entirely explains April…
The Canadian dollar typically has two main drivers: interest rate differentials and commodity prices, especially oil prices. However, the relationship between the CAD and oil has broken down recently. As our FX strategists have…
In terms of interest rate bets, markets are now roughly neutral on whether the Fed or Bank of Canada move the most in the next 12 months. BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service’s bias is that it will be the…
In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5% on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In his opening remarks following the announcement, Governor Tiff Macklem was cautiously dovish: “We don't want to leave…
Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.
It is too early for the RBA to begin cutting rates. Inflation remains above target, with core CPI currently standing at 3.4%, one of the highest numbers amongst major economies. The labor market is also fundamentally strong.…
The Bank of Canada released its Business Outlook Survey for the first quarter of this year on Monday. While there are some early signs of stabilization, overall demand continues to be weak. The indicator for future sales growth…