Bear/Bull Market
Executive Summary There has never been a modern era recession or sharp slowdown in which the oil price did not collapse. In a recession, the massive destruction of oil demand always overwhelms a tight supply. Across the last six recessions, the median collapse in the oil price was -60 percent…
Executive Summary Investors face a dilemma. The faster that inflation comes down, the better it will be for valuations via a stronger rally in the bond price. But if a collapse in inflation requires a sharp deceleration in growth, the worse it will be for profits. Bond yields are likely in a…
Executive Summary Equities Are Closer To Capitulation
What Is Next For US Equities? They Will Be Fat And Flat…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The US Inflation Surprise Index Has Rolled Over
Goldilocks: A Skeptical Q&A…
Next Thursday May 26, we will hold the BCA Debate – High Inflation: Here To Stay,Or Soon In The Rear-View Mirror? – a Webcast in which I will debate my colleague, Chief Commodity & Energy Strategist, Bob Ryan on the outlook for inflation, and take the side that inflationary fears will soon…
Highlights All four of our US Equity indicators are currently pointing in a bearish direction. Our Monetary Indicator has fallen to a three decade low, our Technical Indicator has broken into negative territory, our Valuation Indicator still signals extreme equity pricing, and our Speculation…
Highlights Several factors point to both an improvement and a deterioration in economic and financial market conditions, underscoring that the 6- to 12-month investment outlook is unavoidably uncertain. On the one hand, the US will likely avoid a recession over the coming year, slowing headline…
Executive Summary Investors Think The Fed Will Not Be Able To Raise Rates Much Above 2%
Is A Higher Neutral Rate Good Or Bad For Stocks…
Executive Summary Chinese Onshore Stocks Are Less Impacted By External Factors
Upgrading Chinese Onshore Stocks To Neutral…
Executive Summary China Needs To Create RMB35 Trillion In Credit In 2022
China Needs To Create RMB35 Trillion In Credit In 2022…