BCA Indicators/Model
Highlights Global GDP growth estimates from the OECD point to a stronger recovery in oil demand than markets are pricing in at present (Chart of the Week). Our forecast for Brent remains at $46/bbl for 2H20 and $65/bbl on average for 2021. Global…
Highlights Bank credit 6-month impulses are plunging, and the pandemic is resurging. Maintain an overweight to growth defensives (technology and healthcare). In the short term, profits will be more resilient in a resurgent pandemic. In the long term,…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of August 31, 2020. The country allocation model still favors the US as its largest overweight. Despite Japan’s outstanding performance in August,…
Modeling The Path Of US Payrolls Growth…
Long-Term Equity Returns Will Be Poor – But A Lot Better Than Bond Returns…
An Unsustainable Divergence In EM Space…
Highlights Scarce Yield: The correlation of relative global government bond returns and yield levels is becoming more positive. The trend should continue if central bankers across the developed world stick to their promises to maintain very loose monetary…
GAA DM Equity Country Allocation Model Update The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of July 31, 2020. The model has not made any meaningful adjustment to the top overweight countries with the top four remaining the US, Spain,…
Highlights The tech sector faces mounting domestic political and geopolitical risks. We fully expected stimulus hiccups but believe they will give way to large new fiscal support, given that COVID-19 is weighing on consumer confidence. Europe’s relative…
Highlights The EU’s €750 billion fiscal package, along with another round of US stimulus likely exceeding $1 trillion, will support global oil demand. On the supply side, OPEC 2.0’s production discipline likely holds, and US shale output will remain…