BCA Indicators/Model
Highlights Tight commodity markets, rising incomes, and constrained logistics networks will continue to push inflation gauges higher, so long as coronavirus mutations don't cause another global economic shutdown. Commodity price pressures – exacerbated by…
Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, are long-time BCA clients who visit our office toward the end of each year to discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead. This report is an edited transcript of our recent conversations, which we held…
Feature Over the past months, we have seen a potent bout of volatility in developed government bond markets, as investors have tried to assess the “lift-off” dates for central bank hiking cycles and the speed and cumulative degree of eventual monetary…
Dear Client, We had an error in our oil balances/forecasts report from 18 November 2021 resulting from a double counting of select US onshore production figures. This has been corrected below. Highlights Higher oil production will restrain price…
Weekly Performance Update For the week ending Thu Nov 11, 2021 The Market Monitor displays the trailing 1-quarter performance of strategies based around the BCA Score. For each region, we construct an equal-weighted, monthly rebalanced portfolio…
Highlights We introduce our rotation graphs to assess the evolution of the relative trend and momentum of various assets. US equities remain on firm footing, but their weakening relative momentum suggests that investors may soon begin to rotate away from…
Weekly Performance Update For the week ending Thu Oct 28, 2021 The Market Monitor displays the trailing 1-quarter performance of strategies based around the BCA Score. For each region, we construct an equal-weighted, monthly rebalanced portfolio…
Weekly Performance Update For the week ending Thu Oct 21, 2021 The Market Monitor displays the trailing 1-quarter performance of strategies based around the BCA Score. For each region, we construct an equal-weighted, monthly rebalanced portfolio…
Highlights In our latest balances and forecast estimates, we are lifting our expectation for 4Q21 Brent prices to $81/bbl, and our forecasts for 2022 and 2023 to $80.00/bbl and $81.00/bbl, up $5/bbl and $1/bbl, respectively. Our revised balances reflect…
Highlights UK GDP is on track to overtake pre-pandemic levels. This will strengthen the case for the BoE to tighten monetary policy. That said, markets are aggressively pricing in a hawkish BoE. This creates room for near-term disappointment. The post-…