The recent ‘Goldilocks’ stock market rally is predicated on the hope that developed countries really can kill inflation without killing their economies. But one important warning sign suggests that the rally has gone…
Caterpillar’s Q2 earnings results released on Tuesday beat consensus estimates by a wide margin. Second quarter profit of $2.92 billion ($5.67 per share) came in well above expectations of $2.38 billion ($4.46 per share).…
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time…
It is widely expected by consensus that earnings growth will rebound into the year-end and into 2024. Multiple factors will drive the reacceleration in earnings growth. Sales growth will pick up: In the remainder of the year,…
The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service has been bearish on gold since the end of March, when it recommended a shift from neutral to underweight. Real gold prices are still quite elevated relative to their long-term history…
Investors remain cautious about the US economy and still have significant cash that needs to be put to work which could extend the rally further. Earnings rebound later in the year will be supported by rising sales growth and surging…
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service recently featured currency valuation models developed by our Foreign Exchange Strategy service. According to these models, the US dollar is extremely overvalued and thus vulnerable…
In Section I, we audit the market’s “soft landing” narrative in response to a meaningful challenge to our cautious stance from recent financial market developments. We acknowledge that US economic growth was stronger in the first…
Australian material stocks have been in a broad trading range since the beginning of the year both in absolute terms and relative to the overall market. This stabilization follows a sharp rally in the fourth quarter of 2022 which…
Results of the ECB’s bank lending survey (BLS) show the impact of the central bank’s aggressive tightening cycle on the region’s economy. Uncertainty about the economic outlook, borrower-specific dynamics,…