BCA Indicators/Model

In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing of the German bund-JGB spread and wider Japanese inflation breakevens.

2 years ago

Essentials

Treasury Yields And The Relative Performance Of Cyclical Equities

Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…

2 years ago

Essentials

Evolving Factor Landscape

Analyzing the long/short performance of the Equity Analyzer Composite Factors gives insight into both what has been driving US large cap markets and how those drivers have evolved over the course of the year. The results presented in the table above were…

2 years ago

GeoMacro

Biden Not A Lame Duck (Yet)

Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election, especially considering the slowing economy and the many foreign challenges facing the US.

2 years ago

Essentials

Are Equities Ripe For A Year-End Bounce?

The S&P 500's 5.9% rally last week marks the greatest weekly price gain since November 2022. This sharp increase comes after a 10.3% selloff between the start of August and late-October, which put the benchmark in correction territory. A 36bps drop in the…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Message From The FX G10 Attractiveness Model

The FX G10 attractiveness model continues to favor the US dollar, but the tide could shift in the coming weeks. Currencies such as the NOK, CHF and even CAD have been rising in rankings in recent months. Using an aggregate of economic and financial…

2 years ago

Essentials

EUR/USD: Potential For Some Near-Term Upside

The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while the monthly rate of change eased to…

2 years ago

Essentials

New Data From The Survey Of Consumer Finances

The Fed’s latest triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), spanning the period from 2019 to 2022, was released on October 18th. It augments the Distributional Financial Accounts' (DFA) depiction of the distribution of household wealth and income. According…

2 years ago

Essentials

Consumer Discretionary Underperforms Despite Resilient Consumption

Recent US data reveals that consumer spending has been extremely robust in the US (see The Numbers). Personal consumption expanded by 4.0% q/q annualized in Q3, helping lift aggregate economic growth. Nevertheless, Consumer Discretionary is the second worst…

2 years ago

FICC

BCA Global Central Bank Monitors: Applications To Fixed Income & FX Investing

Special Report

In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.

2 years ago

BCA Indicators/Model

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