Despite the underwhelming economic recovery, Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open wide stimulus taps as much as they have in past economic downturns. This is corroborated by the PBoC’s marginal interest rate cut…
We continue to expect China to deploy stronger fiscal and monetary stimulus to avoid prolonged deflation brought about by a liquidity trap and sub-zero growth. All the same, a lower-growth risk has been added to our ensemble forecast…
The above chart illustrates the BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator, which is made up of 17 series grouped into four asset class subcomponents: currencies, commodities, equities, and rates/fixed-income. The purpose of the…
In a recently published report, BCA’s Bank Credit Analyst service reviewed the BCA Valuation Index, alongside three other US equity indicators which are published in Section III of each month’s report. The other…
BCA Research's US Investment Strategy service’s yearlong recommendation to overweight equities was founded on its high-conviction view that investors were underestimating American consumers’ resources and resolve…
On Monday, Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of 10 small to mid-sized US banks and placed some of the biggest US banks on downgrade watch. The latter include Bank of New York Mellon, US Bancorp, State Street, and Truist…
During the last economic expansion, a structurally overweight allocation to stocks was at least partially warranted by the idea that “There Is No Alternative” – or “T.I.N.A.” During the last…
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income and Foreign Exchange Strategy services, the British pound is overbought in the near-term and is at risk of a pullback on easing rate expectations, but this will represent a…
China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is…