Amid a range of geopolitical narratives, what matters is that the US strategy of economic engagement with its rivals is failing, giving rise to a new strategy of containment that will reinforce the secular rise in geopolitical risk.…
In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing…
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury…
Analyzing the long/short performance of the Equity Analyzer Composite Factors gives insight into both what has been driving US large cap markets and how those drivers have evolved over the course of the year. The results…
Results from Tuesday’s elections suggest that the Democrats are doing better than what their 2024 polling are showing. While the results are marginally positive for equities, investors should not overrate this off-year election,…
The S&P 500's 5.9% rally last week marks the greatest weekly price gain since November 2022. This sharp increase comes after a 10.3% selloff between the start of August and late-October, which put the benchmark in…
The FX G10 attractiveness model continues to favor the US dollar, but the tide could shift in the coming weeks. Currencies such as the NOK, CHF and even CAD have been rising in rankings in recent months. Using an aggregate of…
The Eurozone's October inflation release confirmed the signal from the German and Spanish reports that price pressures are moderating. CPI inflation softened from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y (below expectations of 3.1% y/y) while…
The Fed’s latest triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), spanning the period from 2019 to 2022, was released on October 18th. It augments the Distributional Financial Accounts' (DFA) depiction of the distribution…
Recent US data reveals that consumer spending has been extremely robust in the US (see The Numbers). Personal consumption expanded by 4.0% q/q annualized in Q3, helping lift aggregate economic growth. Nevertheless, Consumer…