BCA Indicators/Model

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.

Recessions often begin seemingly out of the blue when the economy’s temperature falls enough to set in motion adverse feedback loops that cause unemployment to rise. We expect the US economy to suddenly freeze over towards the end of this year or in early 2025. For now, a benchmark allocation to equities is appropriate, but a more defensive stance will be necessary later this year.