Australian Dollar

The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global growth indicators.

In this report, we identify 5 key signposts that will mark a turn in the dollar. These include technical conditions, foreign real interest rates, US (and global) yield curves, Chinese economic conditions and geopolitics. We then assess whether it is time to short the dollar.

A country’s external balance remains one of the key pillars of the longer-term trend for the exchange rate. In this week’s report, we look at the developments in global basic balances, and their implications for currency strategy.

Dear client, Next week’s report will be on European assets, authored by my colleague Mathieu Savary. We will send that to you Monday, September 26. In that report, Mathieu looks at the European energy market in depth, and concludes the eurozone will survive the winter, but with critical tests in…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary A Beacon Of Hope For AUD A Beacon Of Hope For AUD…

Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Chart 1The Dollar Has Broken Below The First Line Of Support The Dollar Has Broken Before The First Line Of Support…

Executive Summary The Dollar And Volatility The Dollar And Volatility…

Executive Summary Is Relative Inflation Peaking In The US? Is Relative Inflation Peaking In The US…

Executive Summary Markets Priced For A Restrictive Level Of Australian Rates Markets Priced For A Restrictive Level Of Australian Rates…

Executive Summary Markets Priced For A Restrictive Level Of Australian Rates Markets Priced For A Restrictive Level Of Australian Rates…