Australia

This week’s report looks at the US dollar, from the lens of one very cyclical currency – the Australian dollar. 

This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst G10 countries.

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.

The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.

This insight parses through the RBA’s latest policy decision, and makes recommendations on whether to expect any rate cuts in 2024, and beyond.