Highlights The breakout in financial asset prices stands at odds with a deteriorating profit outlook. This suggests a high probability of a coiled-spring reversal in one of the two variables as we enter the thin summer trading months.…

Highlights Central banks globally have turned dovish, with the Fed virtually promising to cut rates in July. But this will be an “insurance” cut, like 1995 and 1998, not the beginning of a pre-recessionary easing cycle.…

Special Report

Highlights We update our long-range forecasts of returns from a range of asset classes – equities, bonds, alternatives, and currencies – and make some refinements to the methodologies we used in our last report in November…

  While the media has zeroed in on the newly announced tariffs on Mexico late last week, tariffs on Indian imports and the narrowly avoided Australia trade war front barely made the news. This heightened policy uncertainty has…

Highlights Currency markets continue to fight a tug of war between weak incoming data but easier financial conditions. Our thesis remains that the path of least resistance for the dollar is down, but the rising specter of global…

Highlights Recent data suggest central bankers remain behind the curve in boosting inflation expectations. Ergo, expect a dovish bias to persist over the next few months. Our thesis remains that global growth is in a volatile…

Highlights Solid credit growth numbers from China last week suggest an emerging window for pro-cylical currency trades. However, since 2009, these currency pairs have tended to work in real time rather than with a lag. Continued muted…

Highlights Evidence continues to mount that the Chinese economy is in a bottoming process. This suggests the path of least resistance for the RMB is up. Meanwhile, as the U.S. and China move closer to a trade deal, any geopolitical…