Asset Allocation

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.

Private Credit return expectations edge lower. Middle Market Direct Lending remains attractive, rivaling Middle Market Buyouts.

In our Alpha report, we explain how to trade the trade war and then conduct a scenario analysis for global asset allocation. The short version is that a policy induced recession has to be traded based on policy, not hard macroeconomic data.

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed on the margin through April, returning -0.6%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -1.2%. On a trailing three-month basis, performance remains robust vs. benchmark, with USHQ generating +230bps of excess return. Volatility and drawdown are lower too.