Meager credit growth and shrinking real wages will keep Thai inflation very low in the coming months. The currency will get support from an improving current account surplus. Fixed-income investors should upgrade Thailand from…
In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.
Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024.
Global cyclical sectors are outperforming defensive sectors on a year-to-date basis. The bulk of this outperformance occurred in the first seven months of the year. Relative valuations contributed to this dynamic as last year…
The US Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) continues to send a poor signal about the economic outlook. The monthly pace of contraction quickened to -0.8% m/m in October from -0.7% m/m in September. In terms…
The soft-landing narrative is gaining momentum, pushing equities higher and potentially offering investors a better entry point to position against it. Financial markets appear to have been surprised by the comforting…