Asia

China’s economic growth will stagnate, at best, rather than revive. Lower valuations of Chinese equities are justified, and share prices have more downside. The RMB will continue to depreciate versus the US dollar.

Despite higher uncertainty, our Brent price forecasts remain unchanged at just over $101/bbl for 4Q23 and $118/bbl for next year. We remain long equity exposure to oil and gas producers via the XOP ETF, and commodity exposure via the COMT ETF. We also remain long $100 Dec24 Brent calls and long 1Q24 Brent futures vs. short 1Q25 Brent futures in anticipation of stronger backwardation.

Domestic auto sales in China will likely have anemic growth over the next three years. Yet, Chinese automakers are set to gain a larger share of the global market. Go long Chinese automakers / short global ones.