Fertilizer prices will continue to move lower as the natgas price shock touched off by the Russian invasion of Ukraine dissipates. As a result, we expect grain prices to soften another 10% this year. Food-price inflation will move…

We went overweight the S&P agricultural chemicals index in early May, a contrarian bet to take advantage of extreme bearishness, undervaluation and the potential for a rise in underlying commodity prices. Since then, a rise in…

Equities are celebrating domestic economic disappointment rather than re-pricing the risk of ongoing profit struggles. This reinforces that liquidity and share price momentum are still the dominant market forces.

Overweight Our early-May upgrade of the S&P agricultural chemical index proved timely, as Bayer launched a bid for Monsanto, sending the index up sharply. It is tempting to book gains, but if underlying profit drivers continue to…

The bright side to higher food prices is that the S&P agricultural chemical index should finally be finished a brutal bear market. This group has been savaged by the collapse in agricultural commodity prices, worries about the…

U.S. dollar softness has failed to lift equities of late, a tentative warning that correlations are changing as the U.S. economy cools.