The gap between the BCA Defense and BCA Aerospace indexes has widened considerably as their respective outlooks have diverged. Aerospace orders have fallen by more than half from their peak in 2013, while defense orders appear to be…
The large gap between the BCA Defense and BCA Aerospace indexes is likely to grow much larger. The U.S. is aiming to boost defense spending as part of its stimulus efforts, and is pressuring other NATO members to boost defense spending…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The market has quietly adopted a less cyclical sectoral tone since yearend, a trend that could amplify over the coming months, even if overall appreciation persists. Defense stocks have grown into…
Beyond early last century's military rearmament, the idea of militarily outspending opponents was very evident in the early-1960s when U.S. defense spending surged by 20% on a year-over-year basis. If our hypothesis that a global…
The European armament dynamics of the late-19th century/early 20th century are eerily reminiscent of the current post-Great Recession global arms race. Back then Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy on one side, and Britain, France and…
The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…
The previous Insight showed that the overall industrials sector was in recession territory, based on the message from sinking capital goods orders. At a minimum, that argues for a highly selective investment approach. For instance, in…