Highlights Chart 1Stick With Steepeners The new year promises to be one of Fed tightening. The minutes from the December FOMC meeting reinforced the notion that rate hikes will begin as early as March and the market is now…
Highlights Chart 1Curve Flattening Is Overdone Fed Chair Jay Powell made big news last month. During Senate testimony, Powell not only signaled that the Fed is likely to accelerate the pace of asset purchase tapering when it…
Highlights Chart 1Buy The 2-Year, Sell The 10-Year Treasury yields have been volatile of late, but the biggest move has been a flattening of the yield curve led by a sell-off at the front-end. Our recommended yield curve…
Highlights Chart 1Bond Yields Still Track The "Re-Opening" Trade Bond yields rose notably in September, with the bulk of the move coming in the days after the Fed teased an upcoming tapering of its…
Highlights Chart 1Employment Growth Will Rebound August’s weak employment growth reflects the surge of Delta variant COVID cases in the United States. This is evidenced by the fact that Leisure & Hospitality sector…
Highlights Chart 1Still Close To Fair Value Treasury yields fell significantly in July, particularly at the long end of the curve. We continue to view this move as an overreaction to mediocre economic data that will be reversed…
Highlights Chart 1Employment Growth June’s employment report revealed that 850 thousand jobs were added to nonfarm payrolls during the month. This is well above the 416k to 505k threshold that is required to hit the…
Highlights Chart 1Tracking Nonfarm Payrolls With 12-month PCE inflation already above the Fed’s 2% target, it is progress toward the Fed’s “maximum employment” goal that will determine both the timing…