Financial conditions will continue to ease during the next few months, and the Fed will use its June statement to prepare the markets for a rate hike in September.

Some tentative signs of life in the global manufacturing data suggest that Treasury yields have some room to move higher in the near term.

Fed policymakers will soon shift their focus toward the strong employment and inflation data and stress that further rate hikes this year are likely. This will stem the rally in risk assets and cap the upside in long-dated yields.

A near-term rally in risk assets now appears very likely. But we expect it to be cut short when the Fed eventually reacts to easier financial conditions by returning to a more hawkish policy stance. Investors should maintain a…

Spread product performance has been foreshadowing changes in market rate hike expectations since early last year, and the recent bout of weakness means it is probably time for the Fed to temper its hawkishness.