Japanese Yen
今後数か月で、日本の新政権は財政政策を緩和し、それが国内需要をわずかに押し上げるだろう。短期的には金融政策がさらに引き締まる可能性があるが、長期的にはそれほど強くはならない。地政学的環境が日本を緩和的な経済政策へと向かわせる。
最新の日本銀行会合は、円ロングとJGBのアンダーウェイトという我々が強く確信している見解を変えませんでした。
Our Counterpoint Strategy team believes the equity bull market’s biggest risk is the reversal of the divergence between Japanese and US real yields. Japan’s real policy interest rate differential versus the US stands at an unprecedented and unsustainable…
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity.
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.
The Bank of Japan’s policy normalization has been accompanied by exceptional outperformance by Japanese banks. Japanese banks have outperformed both the country’s broader market as well as the MSCI ACW Banks index by 10.3% and 2.6%, respectively, so far this…
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in September and signaled it was in no rush to lift rates further. This move follows two hikes this year, one of them unanticipated. The signaling is consistent with dovish comments in August…