Equities

The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

Upgrade the odds of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Strait from 5% to 10%. Rapid escalation of US-China economic war raises the probability of tensions spilling into the military-strategic domain. Investors should buy insurance against this tail risk while it is cheap. Meanwhile, use this year’s trade shock and equity volatility to increase allocation to EM manufacturing states.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Canadian Consumer Staples, high-beta Swedish equities, and factor plays across global equities.

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Gold mining stocks, Japanese Staples, and Implicit Dividend Yield. 

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.