Developed Countries
The May ISM Services PMI sent a stagflationary signal, reinforcing the case for defensive positioning. The headline index slipped into contraction at 49.9 from 51.6 in April, missing expectations. New orders collapsed to 46.4 from 52.3, while employment edged…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
Ongoing military tensions between Ukraine and Rusia and renewed US-EU trade friction reinforce tactical opportunities to add European exposure on dips. Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian air assets and the limited outcome of the latest Istanbul talks point to…
Our European strategists expect the EURO STOXX 50 to remain rangebound between 4750 and 5500 this summer, creating a punishing environment for buy-and-hold investors. With the index near the top of its range, they recommend trimming outright exposure and…
The May ISM Manufacturing Index missed expectations, reinforcing our view that recession risks remain underpriced. The headline fell to 48.5 from 48.7, while new orders and employment both rebounded slightly but remained below the 50-expansion threshold. New…
マクロクオンツは、米国エクイティがほとんど経済リスクを織り込んでいないと警告している。モデルはエクイティを回避しており、キャッシュへの大幅なオーバーウェイトを推奨している。
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
Rising bond yields may present an even greater danger to the global economy than the trade war. With equity valuations no longer discounting much economic risk, investors should position themselves defensively.
The latest US durable goods orders and consumer confidence figures suggest that hard and soft data are converging, but stocks remain at risk. After months of rising prints, new orders for manufactured goods sank by 6.3% in April compared to the previous…
The structural outlook for European assets remains bright, but near-term headwinds argue for longer duration and caution on equities. Here are three takes that call for a temporary pullback in European assets, and two that explore the long-term bullish…