経済
Our Global Fixed Income strategists assessed the risk of a second wave of inflation, and discussed the opportunities within the inflation-linked bond (ILB) market. Global disinflation remains on track, though energy prices and tariffs pose upside risks. In…
Jonathan provides an update on Canada following strong performance from Canadian stocks last year. On a tactical basis, underweight Canada versus global ex-US on the expectation of tariffs targeting Canada and Mexico. Following a sell off, or if a trade war is avoided, investors should place Canadian stocks on upgrade watch with the goal of moving to a modest overweight versus global ex-US.
The Federal Reserve kept rates on hold in its 4.25%-to-4.5% range, as expected. The main change in the statement was the removal of the reference to progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, leaving instead a simple mention that inflation “remains somewhat…
The Bank of Canada cut by 25 bps to 3% as expected, and announced the end of quantitative tightening. This sixth consecutive cut brings the policy rate further into neutral territory, estimated to be in the 2.25%-to-3.25% range. The BoC assessed the results…
The January 2025 ECB bank lending survey saw a net tightening of credit standards in Q4 2024. Credit standards were tightened for business and consumer lending, and were roughly unchanged for home mortgage loans. Banks expect further tightening across all…
1月のコンファレンス・ボード消費者信頼感指数は予想を下回り、12月の上方修正された109.5から104.1に低下しました。低下は現在の状況と期待のサブコンポーネント双方によってもたらされました。求人が豊富だと答えた割合と見つけにくいと答えた割合の差である労働差もサイクル底付近まで低下しており、労働市場の緩みを示唆しています。 調査ベースの消費者および企業の信頼感指標は選挙直後に急騰しましたが、その後は冷めています。12月の小売売上高は 期待外れ…
News of a cheaper Chinese-developed AI model sent a tremor through markets, with a selloff in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and leading tech names associated with AI. The narrative on Monday was that the eye-watering sums spent on AI capex by mega-cap tech companies…
The January Ifo Business Climate index for Germany beat estimates, increasing to 85.1 vs. 84.7 in December. The increase came from the survey’s current assessment component, which increased a full point, as the expectations component missed estimates and…
China’s official January PMIs disappointed, with the composite ticking down to 50.1 from 52.2. The decrease was driven by both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing components, with the former indicating contraction, and the latter showing very low growth.…
Our China Investment Strategy team explored how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, US importers, and consumers. The inflationary impact of new US tariffs is likely to remain modest unless President Trump imposes…