経済成長

Are bunds the new Treasurys? The euro and German debt are gaining favor as safe havens, but markets may be overplaying the shift. Our latest report dissects what's durable, what's not, and how to trade the dislocation.

Do not play the bounce in US and global cyclical assets as Trump backpedals from the trade war. China will talk, but the pace will be slow and the outcome disappointing. Fiscal stimulus will surprise marginally in the EU, China, and even the US, but still may not rescue the business cycle. 

Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks to underperform over a multi-year horizon.

The policy-induced decline in consumer confidence has spread to businesses and investors, increasing the probability of a recession even if the administration reverses field on its aggressive tariff measures. We reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.

Fed Chair Jay Powell’s remarks yesterday were in-line with our base case expectation that the Fed will not cut rates proactively in the face of rising tariff-driven inflation.

ポストCOVIDの景気拡大を支えた景気刺激策は5年を経て勢いを失い始め、経済は自然に発生する景気後退の方向に向かっていました。DOGEと多方面にわたる貿易戦争がそのタイムテーブルを前倒しした今、我々は改めてリスクオフの推奨を表明します。

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.