経済成長

私たちの特別レポートは、現在の景気循環における消費者の状況を1960年以降のすべての循環と比較したグラフ形式の分析です。悪いニュースとしては、可処分所得がますます政府の移転収入に依存し、労働市場が軟化していることです。一方で、良いニュースとしては、資産分布の下位半分に属する世帯のバランスシートが大幅に改善していることです。

Provided that humanity can overcome the existential risks posed by AI, real incomes will rise. Although most workers will ultimately gain from the transition to an AI-dominated economy, the biggest winners will be those who control the land and the natural resources beneath it.

Bond market volatility will spike again in the near term. The Fed is committed to an easing cycle yet the Trump administration’s signature fiscal policy action will stimulate the economy. Tariffs are supposed to keep the budget deficit contained but they are inflationary. 

The US economy has held up better so far this year than we had expected. For the time being, investors should remain modestly underweight equities. A more aggressive underweight would be justified only once the “whites of the recession’s eyes” are visible.