ソフツ

“スーパーエルニーニョ”のリスクは農業市場にとって重大な脅威である。小麦、ココア、パーム油はエルニーニョ関連の供給混乱に特に脆弱である。 

食料価格の上昇は、フロンティア市場および新興市場全体に政治的、場合によっては地政学的な波紋をもたらし得る。これらの市場では 食料価格が先進国よりもはるかに重要であるためだ。

原油価格の上昇は世界経済を脅かしており、エクイティに対してアンダーウェイトの姿勢を取ることが妥当です。長期的には工業用金属は原油よりも良好に推移するでしょう。

The US economy has never entered a demand-driven recession without labour demand running below labour supply and without the job vacancy rate running below the unemployment rate. Right now though, US labour demand is still running 1.7 million workers above labour supply, and the job vacancy rate is running comfortably above the unemployment rate. This suggests that the labour market is still supply-constrained, and that a demand-driven recession is not imminent. We discuss the investment implications. Plus, more about our ‘trade of the century’: long cotton versus coffee.

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

Looking at economic activity, global monetary policy seems restrictive, however, the behavior of financial markets tells a different story. What gives?

Global ag markets will become more volatile as anthropogenically induced climate change continues to degrade farmland. This will make price signals emanating from these markets less efficient in terms of processing supply-demand fundamentals. All else equal, food prices likely move higher, which will contribute to inflationary biases in the medium-to-long run. Investors will continue to seek out farmland investments as a way to diversify portfolio risk and raise absolute returns.